Future of Geopolitics: Macro-Geopolitical Paradigm Shifts
Session 5 - XXXV Conference of Central Banks and Official Institutions: A glimpse into the future
About this Session
Investors are facing three macro and geopolitical paradigm shifts in the 2020s. The first is the transition from the Washington Consensus – a paradigm that gave us the Great Moderation – to the Buenos Aires Consensus, a paradigm that will give us… something else. The second is the US-China geopolitical conflict. Most investors have begun to extrapolate the previous decade linearly into the future, believing that the end point of the Sino-American rivalry must be a conflict akin to a Cold War. This is a mistake. The relationship is fraught with risks, but it will not neatly follow the outlines of the twentieth century. The third is the Race to Zero, an epochal transition of humanity’s “means of production” from the Industrial Revolution – and its Race to Scale – to the new age of efficiency.
Guest Speaker
Marko Papic
Partner & Chief Strategist Clocktower GroupPartner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, an alternative investment asset management firm. He leads the firm’s Strategy Team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. Previously, Mr. Papic founded BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy practice, the financial industry’s first dedicated political analysis investment strategy, which generated “geopolitical alpha” by identifying gaps between the market’s political expectations and the firm’s forecasts. He served as a senior vice president and the chief geopolitical strategist at the firm. Mr. Papic began his career as a senior analyst at Stratfor, a global intelligence agency where he contributed to the firm’s global geopolitical strategy and its analyst recruitment and training program. In his academic work, he helped create the Center for European Union Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. Mr. Papic is the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future, a book that introduces the constraint-based framework to investors. He earned an MA in political science from the University of Texas at Austin and an MA from the University of British Columbia.
Moderator
Antonio Candia
Principal of Financial Innovation, FLARAntonio Candia Principal of Financial Innovation of the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR). In this role, he leads the innovation efforts of the Financial Department, in which he has held other positions, the last one being Head Portfolio Manager. Before joining FLAR, he held positions in the International Operations Management risk area at the Central Bank of Bolivia.Antonio holds the FRM (Financial Risk Manager) designation and EMBA from Temple University.